Category: Energy

Fossil Fuels in the Arab World: Seasons Reversed – Oil and Politics Interplay in the Arab World

New book reflects on the interplay between politics and the oil and gas industry in the Arab world.

In the previous book “Fossil Fuels in the Arab World: Facts and Fiction”, an assessment was undertaken of mankind’s dependence on fossil fuels i.e. oil, natural gas and coal – particularly the position of Arab countries in this international industry. It evaluated commonly held beliefs, separating the hard facts from fiction by analysing the data and examining them impartially to provide a definitive, quantitative, answer, and through the perspective of a political lens. In addition, the book examined the interaction between fossil fuels and alternative energy. In concluding the book several questions were posed, identifying whether or not fossil fuel producing countries of the Arab world were an indispensable energy supplier and if the answer or beliefs around that question were affecting Western policies towards the Arab world.

This book answers these questions posed five years ago, placing them into “three perspectives”: market fundamentals, understanding the fossil fuel market fundamentals and the place of the Arab world within that; political influences, corruption & cultural norms in business dealings, the developing democracy and militarisation in the Arab world and their interplay with oil and gas, and finally, public relations, perceptions or concerns, where climate change and alternative energy questions are explored in detail.

This book is written in a non-technical style to appeal both, to the non-expert with no prior knowledge of oil and natural gas, and also to the oil and gas experts, who are interested in further insights on the future of Arab world and its oil and gas sector.

This book is structured into three parts totalling seven chapters. Part I consists of two chapters and reviews briefly the events of the last five years and puts them in context, then revisits the conclusions in the previous book, and examines if they still stand, providing a current update. Part II is the core analysis consisting of four detailed chapters, in which answers to all eight questions from the previous book are provided. Sets of data addressing the “three defined perspectives” are also presented. Finally, Part III is the concluding chapter, which connects all the threads of the analysis and looks at the bigger picture. Here again, more questions are asked and predictions offered of what is likely to happen in the future.

The book is now available worldwide at reputable bookstores and online book retailers.

Full Details:
Paperback: 268 pages
Publisher: 2050 Consulting, +44 20 7490 2942
Language English
ISBN-10: 0956736815
ISBN-13: 978-0956736819
Retail price: £21.99
URL: http://books-fossilfuels.2050consulting.com

Deal or No Deal? Natural Gas Supplies to Jordan

1. Introduction[1]

As a Jordanian expat, with a keen personal and professional interest in the energy policies in Jordan, I have been closely following the debate in the Jordanian media over the last few months regarding the supply of natural gas from Israel to Jordan. I have been exasperated by the amount of misinformation published and flabbergasted by claims made by so-called experts, who fabricate facts to deceive the public. I am not in a position to speculate what their motives might be but their actions have motivated me to write this piece and set the record straight.

There is a need to analyse the topic objectively, setting emotions, reactions and feelings aside. We must all be mindful of the facts and refrain from making fanciful claims.

Let us remember that this natural gas trade deal is not the first of its kind and history is full of examples where previous enemies collaborated, or even current enemies worked together for the greater good of both those interests. Recall that, at the peak of the Cold War, the Americans supplied the “evil” Soviets with their wheat needs and the Soviets supplied European NATO countries with the natural gas necessary to keep their economies rolling. Another notorious example was when Iran sourced its weapons from the so-called-then “Great Satan”, i.e. the USA and Israel, during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s. Sometimes in politics, “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”, and, “money makes the world go round”.

Bearing this in mind, let’s go back to the Jordanian-Israeli situation, take a brief overview of the state of the energy/power supply and demand in Jordan, then let’s analyse the need for, and logic behind, the natural gas deal. Then let’s look at all the alternative solutions proposed in the media to this natural gas deal.

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لماذا يشترون نفطنا ؟

1 المقدمة

أدت الاضطرابات التي تجتاح العالم العربي حالياً إلى ارتفاع أسعار النفط لمستويات لم يصلها منذ العام 2008، و أبرزت المسألة الشائكة المتمثلة في الإعتماد العالمي على النفط العربي على صفحات الصحف وفي مقدمات نشرات الأخبار في كافة أرجاء العالم. و قد أدى هذا الهجوم الإعلامي المصحوب بتحذيرات مستمرة من قبل الخبراء عن حدوث نقص وشيك في مصادر الطاقة والذي يكون عادة مصحوباً بادعاءات يذكيها الكثير من المتوجسين المدافعين عن نظرية “ذروة النفط” – والذين يروجون لفكرة أن انتاج العالم من النفط قد وصل القمة (الذروة) وبأن نفاذه السريع قد بدأ – إلى إقناع الجمهور العالمي بشكل لا لبس فيه بأن العالم العربي هو مصدر للطاقة لا غنى عنه، و بدون هذا المصدر سيكون مصير الحضارة الإنسانية التوقف ثم الانهيار. هذه التحذيرات والادعاءات كثيراً ما استخدمت ومازالت تستخدم كذريعة لتبرير استمرار التدخل السياسي والعسكري في شؤون العالم العربي، واستعملت مراراً وتكراراً من قبل قادة الديمقراطيات الغربية كسبب للدفاع عن دعمهم للحكومات الاستبدادية والسلطوية العربية لضمان استمرارها في الحكم. ومع انه يبدو على السطح بأن هذه المواقف الغربية قد تغيرت بسبب الثورات العربية عام 2011، إلا أنه في واقع الأمر، ما زالت المواقف الغربية ثابتة ولكنها أصبحت مغلفة بالسرية والحذر. وهنا لابد من التساؤل: هل العالم هشٌ حقاً لهذا الحد؟ وهل تعتمد الحضارة الإنسانية على منطقة واحدة غير مستقرة من العالم لتأمين إمدادات الطاقة العالمية؟

للإجابة على الأسئلة المطروحة أعلاه، يتبع هذا المقال نهجاً واضحاً معتمداً على أساس التدقيق في الأرقام والمعلومات، عوضاً عن قبول الإدعاءات غير المثبتة والتي لا أساس لها من الصحة غالبا. و لتحقيق هذا الغرض نستعرض أدناه أربع محاور رئيسية  تساعدنا على رسم خارطة طريق للتفكير والتي بدورها ستقود إلى استنتاجات واضحة وتؤهلنا للحصول على رؤية واضحة ورأي مضطلع يمكننا من التفريق بين الحقائق والخيال عند قراءة وتفسير المعلومات حول هذا الموضوع.

  1. دراسة كافة أنواع الوقود الاحفوري، أي النفط والغاز الطبيعي والفحم، والتي تشكل الغالبية العظمى من احتياجات الطاقة العالمية. هذا يعني انه لا يجب علينا الاكتفاء بدراسة بيانات النفط فقط، بل توسيع ذلك ليشمل بيانات الغاز الطبيعي والفحم، حيث أن هذه الأنواع الثلاثة من الوقود قابلة للتحول من شكل إلى آخر من الناحية التقنية، وبناء عليه، لابد من دراستها مجتمعة.
  2. الاعتراف بالمصادر غير التقليدية من الوقود الاحفوري، والتي تستمر عملية إعادة تصنيفها تدريجياً وبمرور الوقت كمصادر تقليدية بسبب التقدم التكنولوجي، مما يجعلها مجدية اقتصادياً. وتشمل مصادر الوقود الاحفوري غير التقليدية النفط الثقيل، ورمال القطران، و الصخر الزيتي, والغاز الحجري، الغاز المحصور، الميثان في الطبقات الفحمية, (coalbed methane) الغاز المضغوط بواسطة عوامل جيولوجية  (geopressurised)و الغاز المضغوط بواسطة السوائل (hydropressurised gas) وهيدرات الميثان والجفت.
  3. الفهم الواضح لمصطلحات الوقود الاحفوري الأساسية، والقدرة على التمييز بين أنواع الوقود ، و التمييز بين مصطلحي “الاحتياطيات” و”الموارد”.
  4. إجراء تقييم دقيق ومحايد لاحصاءات الوقود الاحفوري في العالم العربي ومساهمته  في خريطة الطاقة العالمية. هذا التقييم يجب أن يعتمد على مصادر بيانات موثوقة وشاملة، بيانات مقومة ليس على أساس الدقة والموثوقية فحسب بل على أساس الموضوعية ومعرفة دوافع مقدمي البيانات أيضا.

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Can the Arab Uprising Topple Western Democracy? Change and Affect Western Way of Life?

1. Introduction

The turmoil currently engulfing the Arab world causing oil prices to soar has once again brought the thorny issue of the global dependence on Arab oil to the forefront of news bulletins and newspapers worldwide. The continuous blitz by the “experts” warning of imminent energy shortages, chiefly the scaremongers advocating looming “peak oil” where the world will be running out of oil, has lead the public globally to unequivocally be persuaded that the Arab world[1] is an indispensable energy source without which civilisation will come to a halt and collapse. This perspective is often used as a pretext to justify continuous political and military meddling in the Arab world’s affairs. It has repeatedly been used by “democratic” western leaders to defend their support of autocratic and authoritarian Arab governments to stay in power. This attitude appears to be changing on the surface due to the Arab uprisings of 2011, yet in reality, it is still being maintained, though cautiously discreet. But is the world really this vulnerable? And does civilisation rely for its energy supplies on what happens in one unstable region in the world?

To answer the above questions, this article is informed by hard facts and follows a clear approach based on scrutinizing the numbers rather than accepting the propaganda that often has no basis. As such, the four steps outlined below are crucial to establish a roadmap of thinking leading to clear conclusions:

  1. Incorporating fossil fuels as a whole, i.e. oil, natural gas and coal, which constitute the overwhelming majority of the world’s energy needs. This means that we have to widen the data review beyond oil to include natural gas and coal, since the three fuel types are technically convertible. Accordingly, it is crucial to inspect them comprehensively.
  2. Embracing unconventional forms of fossil fuels, which continue to be gradually reclassified over time into conventional due to improving technology, which renders them economically feasible. These include extra heavy oil, tar sands (bitumen), oil shale, shale gas, tight gas, coalbed methane, geopressurized and hydropressurised gas, methane hydrate and peat.
  3. Attaining an unambiguous and basic understanding of the terminology and concepts of fossil fuels, distinguishing fuel types and clarifying the jargon, in particular, the distinction between the terms “reserves” and “resources”.
  4. Assessing impartially fossil fuels statistics in the Arab world and their contribution to the global picture. This assessment must rely on credible and comprehensive sources of data included where not only the accuracy and reliability of the data is important, but also the motivation and objectivity of its providers.

This article implements this road map and equips us to obtain a clear insight and an informed opinion, which allows us to differentiate facts from fiction when reading and interpreting data about this subject.

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Fossil Fuels in the Arab World: Facts and Fiction – Global and Arab Insights of Oil, Natural Gas & Coal

New book dispels the myths and clarifies the facts about the dependence of the world on the Arab oil and gas.

Will the turmoil in the Arab world have severe consequences on global energy security? Is the Arab world an indispensable energy source without which civilisation will come to a halt and collapse? Is this the reason causing continuous political and military meddling in the Arab world’s affairs, and is being used by democratic western leaders to support autocratic and authoritarian Arab governments to stay in power? Is the apparent change in policy only superficial due to the Arab uprisings of 2011, yet in reality it is still being maintained discretely? Is the world really this vulnerable? Does our civilisation rely for its energy supplies on what happens in one unstable region in the world?

To paint a true picture of mankind’s dependence on fossil fuels, particularly oil, and to assess the position of the Arab world in this picture, the above questions and more are answered by analysing not only oil, but the three types of fossil fuels: oil, natural gas, and coal, which are in essence convertible, Fossil fuels are tackled from two main angles; the first angle is the need to clarify the terminology and the terms used by the media, the politicians, the scientists, and the so-called experts, when discussing oil, natural gas and coal, while the second angle is to evaluate the hard facts and separate them from fiction by analysing the numbers and scrutinise them impartially to come with a definitive quantitative answer. Finally, a further investigation examines fossil fuels in relation to alternative energy, and from a political perspective.

This comprehensive book is written in a non-technical style to appeal both to the non-expert with no prior knowledge of oil, natural gas or coal, as well as oil and gas experts, who require detailed analysis of fossil fuels availability and future in the Arab world.

The book is now available worldwide at reputable bookstores and online book retailers.

Full Details:
Paperback: 396 pages
Publisher: 2050 Consulting, +44 20 7490 2942
Language English
ISBN-10: 0956736807
ISBN-13: 978-0956736802
Retail price: £20.99
URL: http://books-fossilfuels.2050consulting.com